full version here.
Dividend increases across the board
For investors in European stocks, the first few months of the year are always exciting. While the US market often focuses on quarterly payouts, continental Europe mostly remains the land of “all at once dividends,” with some exceptions, such as Assa Abloy AB.
For European investors, now is the moment of truth: our holdings reveal how much cash will hit our accounts between April and June.
This year has been no exception. In fact, for my personal portfolio, it’s shaping up to be a record-breaker for dividends from my European stalwarts. Several of my core European holdings have “raised the bar” significantly.
My European insurance companies are the bedrock of my retirement portfolio
Insurance remains the bedrock of European yield.
- Münchener Rück (Munich Re): A true standout. The reinsurer just proposed a massive dividend of €24.00 per share, up 20% YoY, after 33% last year, 29% in 2024, 5.4% in 2023, and 12.20% in 2022.
- Allianz SE: The company just announced a dividend hike of 11.00%, after 12.00% last year, 21.00% in 2024, 5.50% in 2023, and 8.00% in 2022.
- Talanx AG: Talanx is set to announce the next increase in March. I expect a YoY increase between 10.00% and 15.00%, after 14.90% last year, 17.50% in 2024, 25.00% in 2023, and 6.60% in 2022.
- Swiss Re: The dividend will increase by 9.00%, after 8.00% last year, 6.00% in 2024, and 1.00% in 2023. I love the growth acceleration! This shows that my investments were ahead of the wave. Note: Swiss Re declares its dividend in USD; therefore, the final payout and returns may differ slightly for Swiss- or Euro-based investors due to FX effects.
The “sweet” surprise
- AAK AB: The Swedish plant-based oil specialist is a “stealth” star of my portfolio and often overlooked. This February, AAK confirmed a massive leap in total distribution. Beyond the ordinary dividend (raised by 10% to SEK 5.50), they announced a juicy special dividend of SEK 3.85. This brings the total May payout to SEK 9.35 (last year: SEK 5.00). Previous increases amounted to 35% last year, 34.50% in 2024, 10% in 2023, and 8.60% in 2022.
Other European stalwarts of my portfolio
- Deutsche Telekom: The “magenta” giant is reaping the rewards of its T-Mobile US success. They have announced a dividend increase to €0.90 per share, up 11% YoY, after 16.80% in 2025, 10% in 2024, 2023, and 2022.
- Mensch und Maschine Software SE: Management announced a dividend of €2.00 per share, up 8% YoY, after 12% last year, 18% in 2024 and 2023, and 20% in 2022. If you want to know why this stock is nonetheless on my sell watchlist, read this article.
- Assa Abloy AB: The global leader in locks and access solutions continues its steady climb. The board has proposed a total dividend of SEK 6.40 for the year, typically split into two payments in May and November, and up 8.50% YoY, after 9.25% last year, 12.50% in 2024, 14% in 2023, and 7.60% in 2022.
- Publicis Groupe: Outperforming its peers in the advertising world, Publicis has kept the momentum going with a dividend increase to €3.60, up 4.2% YoY, after 5.90% last year, 17% in 2024, 20.80% in 2023, and 20% in 2022.
- SAP SE: The management proposed a dividend of €2.50 per share, up 6.30% YoY, after 6.80% last year, 7.30% in 2024, 5.10% in 2023, and 5.40% in 2022.
Stocks to monitor
- Renk Group: After a strong 2024 payout (€0.30) and an increase to €0.42 in 2025, all eyes are on their March announcement. I am not sure whether they’ll double their 2024 initial payment, but €0.50 to €0.55 per share should be doable.
- Frequentis: The business is booming, so I expect an increase of 20% after 12.50% last year, 9.00% in 2024, 10.00% in 2023, and 33.30% in 2022.
- Ceotronics: They only raised the dividend by 33.00% last year and 20.00% in 2022. I wouldn’t expect too much. They also pay in November. So, it is quite early to make predictions.
- Einhell Germany: An increase of 10% would be nice, after 54.00% last year, 5.00% in 2024, 4.00% in 2023, and 19.10% in 2022.
- Kontron AG: Kontron is a black box. I hope for a modest increase between 5% and 10% after 20.00% last year, 10.00% in 2024, and 12.00% in 2023 and 2022.
European stocks that disappoint(ed)
- Valmet Oyj: After the company raised the dividend by 3.80% in 2024, 8.30% in 2023, and 33.00% in 2022, 2026 will be the second year in a row without an increase. Valmet is therefore on my sell watchlist.
- Vonovia SE: After cutting the payout by 48% in 2023, Vonovia raised it by 6.00% in 2024 and by 35% in 2025. I don’t expect any major increase for this year.
- Mayr-Melnhof SE: They had to cut the payout by 73% in 2024 due to high energy and material prices. Then, the company raised it by 20% last year. This is one of my smallest holdings, and if I don’t see some major signs of business recovery in the next two years, I will sell it.
- Diageo PLC: While the company raised the dividend by 4.00% in 2022 and 2023, and by 5.00% in 2024, it just announced a 50% dividend cut. Ouch. Based on my experience with other holdings such as 3M, I expect a painful path to recovery. I am not sure if I am patient enough to wait for the turnaround. Let’s see. If I need to realise some losses for tax reasons, Diageo will be on the short-list, that’s for sure :).
Dividends are slowly changing my life
And then there is a psychological element every investor crosses when the portfolio moves from a “hobby” to a significant pillar of family security.
My journey started in 2017 with small steps, but as we enter 2026, the scale of my “Retirement Depot” has grown to a point where managing it feels different.
It is no longer just about me. As a father of two, I am also somewhat of a steward and role model.
This is the hidden benefit of my “slow and steady” approach (that isn’t sooo slow in terms of performance but doesn’t match the performance of other gurus you can find on X). I don’t look for a strong track record over the past three years. I look for one that spans a lifetime.
When you invest with a family you are responsible for, your time horizon automatically stretches. You don’t chase the next tenbagger and simply accept the risk of losing everything.
For most of my portfolio, I don’t care about the short-term noise. My investments go beyond that, focusing on the structural resilience of the cash flow that will fund my and my children’s future.
Responsibility, in this context, means choosing the certainty of the payout over the excitement of the gamble.
When I look at Munich Re’s track record of double-digit hikes or AAK’s surprising special dividend, I see the building blocks of a legacy.
This offsets the inevitable disappointments we see, for example with Diageo when you pick stocks.
My journey from 2017 to 2026 is now long enough to teach me that wealth isn’t just about the final number on the screen. It’s about other things, such as the quality of my sleep (which is rare enough with two little kids). So I am thankful for those European champions that helped me build a system that generates an 11% p.a. yield without requiring me to spend 10 hours a day glued to a trading terminal.
The AI madness continues
Does compute equal revenue?
“Tokens per watt translates to dollars per watt, which translates in a gigawatt directly to revenues. And so you could see that every CSP (Cloud Service Provider) understands us now, every hyperscaler understands this, that CapEx translates to compute … and compute equals revenues. Without investing capacity today, without investing in compute, there cannot be revenue growth. And that, I think everybody understands. Compute equals revenues …” (Jen-Hsun Huang)
This totally makes sense in theory and is the rationale behind the CapEx race. But “and compute equals revenues” is an edgy thesis because it assumes the supply of compute is the only bottleneck to the demand for AI services.
Jen-Hsun Huang is describing a closed-loop system where hardware effortlessly converts into cash. But in the real world, I see a “application gap.”
- For Microsoft, Google, and Meta, “compute = revenue” only works if their users (B2B) and their end users (you and me) see enough value to pay a premium for AI features.
- If a company spends $100mn on compute to build a feature that only generates $10mn in incremental productivity or sales, the equation doesn’t just break, it goes negative.
Right now, the data tells a conflicting story. AI adoption is “semi” at best, something we often see when new inventions enter the real world, think of the internet, smart glasses, even cars.

According to Bloomberg, Volkswagen AG tested SAP’s AI Joule and didn’t see how the tool would save substantial money or resources, the person added.
In my daily work, I see massive pilot programs and “AI-powered” feature rollouts like this, but the actual transformation of business workflows is moving at a glacial pace compared to the hardware spend.
The outcomes are equally “semi”, for every success story in automated coding, there’s a company realizing that a chatbot can’t actually replace a nuanced customer service department. As I stated in one of my articles,
“the trust in the reliability and legal security (not to mention liability for data breaches) offered by an established SaaS provider carries far more weight than the promise of cost savings through home-grown AI.”
Plus, despite the skepticism and Citrini Research’s notorious midnight tale of a “Global Intelligence Crisis”, job postings for software engineers are surging.

However, and to also show the other perspective, there is a noticeable downward trend in hiring juniors. Apparently, companies are shifting away from the “hire to train” model toward a “senior + AI” efficiency model. Two thoughts on that:
- During 2020–2022, we witnessed a mega-hiring cycle. At the time, near-zero interest rates fueled an aggressive “talent grab,” where companies hired almost anyone with a pulse and a laptop. Now the music has stopped, and we are seeing a pivot toward radical “efficiency programs” and much stricter budget management.
- I also wonder whether the junior role is disappearing or simply being redefined, from a traditional “hire-to-train” model to one where juniors are expected to perform mid-level tasks by leveraging AI. While this shift allows firms to maintain high output with smaller teams, it creates a temporary “experience gap.” That gap may be filled later on, albeit with fewer hires overall, potentially offset by the creation of new roles (as reflected in the software engineering job postings mentioned above).
But back to the compute = revenue equation.
Given all the noise in the market, I am humble enough to observe the development from the sidelines without taking a material position while also acknowledging that Jen-Hsun Huang is probably way smarter than I am.
But looking at stocks like Intuit, ServiceNow, ADP, Salesforce , I nonetheless think that this is a good time to add beaten-down SaaS stocks.
Speaking of beaten-down stocks (but one I would rather not invest in).
Block, led by Twitter founder and former CEO Jack Dorsey, was down about 80% from its all-time high when Dorsey announced layoffs affecting roughly 40% of the company’s staff.
Block fired 40% of its staff

The news that Block is cutting 40% of its workforce is being framed by many, especially on X and LinkedIn, as the latest domino to fall in the “AI is coming for everything” narrative.
And while that makes for a clean headline, the truth may be more complex.
Just look at Elon Musk’s “hardcore” pivot at X as the blueprint. He cut 80% of the staff (before AI!), and despite the predictions of a total collapse:
- The platform remained stable in terms of performance.
- They shipped a proprietary AI model (Grok) from scratch.
- They proved that “hyper-lean” is possible in social media.
So maaaayyybe AI isn’t “firing” 40% of Block. Rather, AI is providing the justification for radical efficiency. It’s allowing Jack Dorsey to finally cut the workforce debt accumulated in the past hiring craze. Read that way, and beyond the noise, the move is rather a sign and a consequence of poor management and a really bad FY 2025 (in terms of revenue and EPS growth) than a support for the “AI kills everything” narrative.
What also stands out here are all the doom-and-gloom comments on X, Substack, and LinkedIn, the latter supposedly home to the upper echelons of white-collar intelligence.
The following part is for paid subscribers only. It contains an overview of the stocks I purchased in February and some more portfolio details.
Since this report contains valuable/personal insights, I want to restrict access to paying subscribers only. I invest a lot of time and effort into writing these pieces/researching companies etc..
So if my work is worth the price of a coffee to you, it would go a long way in keeping me motivated and providing even more insights! ☕️
Since I’m just starting, I’ve set the lowest fee and am offering a discount for the first 10 paid subscribers. So now is the perfect time to join! 💡✨
Be one of the first supporters and grab the discount by clicking this link:
Best,

