Thoughts On The Possible Upcoming Stock Market Crash And Ex-Dividend Dates Of The 45th Calendar Week

Hello, my dears. Welcome to a new overview of upcoming ex-dividend dates and dividend ideas here on the TEV Blog. Like every week, I want to show you some stocks that will go ex-dividend in the next days. I’ll also review a few companies currently in investors’ focus or that have an attractive fundamental valuation. Additionally, I’ll give you some insights into my retirement portfolio and/or share my thoughts and experiences about individual companies with you. This time, I will talk a little bit about my thoughts on the possible upcoming stock market crash.

Why yields are a simple way to screen companies

Dividends are a great thing. Even in bad stock market times, they provide a juicy cash flow per month. If you want to benefit from dividend payments as quickly as possible, you must pay attention to the ex-dividend dates. This date is the day on which shares are traded without their subsequent dividend value. Only if you owned the stocks on this day are you entitled to receive the dividend.

Usually, there are always exciting dividend companies that are worth a second look. And the dividend yield is an excellent way to get an initial overview of companies that may be worth further due diligence. To help you get started, at the end of each week, I will publish the ex-dividend dates for the coming week of individual companies here in the TEV blog.

Why I handpick and double-check the upcoming ex-dividend dates next week

I have recently noticed that many databases do not indicate the respective numbers and dates correctly. Spontaneous dividend cuts, in particular, are only partially taken into account, or in some cases, not at all. As a result, the value of such overviews dwindles enormously.

Therefore, I’ve decided to select individual companies by hand and check the dates and dividend yields on the companies’ websites, which means more work for me but increases this section’s value enormously, so it is worth it 🙂

Because I’ve been asked about it by some of the readers: I don’t decide my investments based on whether a company goes ex-dividend or not. This overview is simply a way to screen companies regularly. By double-checking the current dividend yields, I scan companies’ business development more or less once a quarter and see if anything significant has changed. In the end, however, comprehensive due diligence always decides whether I invest or not.

Ex-Dividend Calendar

As always, you’ll find some handpicked exciting ex-dividend dates below.

My thoughts on the possible upcoming stock market crash

I have already pointed out several times how unhealthy the rally of the last months is. Week after week, the stock markets disproved me and made me look like a crash prophet. However, my articles did not remain undignified. On Seeking Alpha, they belong to my most successful pieces of all time. Overall, I wrote three pieces that have dealt in particular with the reasons and possible outcomes of the next stock market crash:

• The Coming Stock Market Crash – Smart Money Is Already Ringing The Death Bell
• The Never Coming Stock Market Crash – Smart Money Is Still Waiting, Here’s What I Do
• Coming Stock Market Crash: Preparing For The Next Black Swan Event

Besides, I wrote in my TEV’s Ex-Dividend Calendar articles about how unreasonable the stock markets are and how I only invest with a stomach ache (e.g., here and here). That I am still not a crash prophet who has been talking about a crash for years is shown by the following circumstances:

• I invest massively in stocks. Four to five times, I buy shares in good companies.
• I say that there will be a time after the crash, which will be extremely successful.
• But what is true and there I am honest. A crash would suit me just fine. I am in the process of building up a broadly diversified pension portfolio. The cheaper I get shares, the better, and crisis offer the best conditions for creating the basis for wealth. In an older article, I have already shown you some legendary investors who used the worst crises to make massive amounts of money (click here).

But and this was reality, the prices went up and up and up.

And then came David Einhorn and said: “This may rank among the most perilous times, absent war, in modern American history”

However, in the middle of the week, the following happened. David Einhorn, the legendary founder of hedge fund Greenlight Capital, warned investors about a bubble in technology in his Q3 letter. And to be honest, he was very clear in his wording:

“As for the question of sanity, we are now in the midst of an enormous tech bubble. We prematurely identified what we thought was a bubble in early 2016. Part of our thinking at the time was that the height of the 1999-2000 bubble was a once-in-a-career experience and that investors would not repeat that level of insanity. Clearly, we were mistaken.”

David Einhorn also mentions the prerequisites for the perfect crash cocktail, which he takes for granted:

• an IPO mania;
• extraordinary valuations and new metrics for valuation;
• a huge market concentration in a single sector and a few stocks;
• a second tier of stocks that most people haven’t heard of at S&P 500-type market capitalizations;
• the more fanciful and distant the narrative, it seems, the better the stock performs;
• the outperformance of companies suspected of fraud based on the consensus belief that there is no enforcement risk, without which crime pays;
• outsized reaction to economically irrelevant stock splits;
• increased participation of retail investors, who appear focused on the best-performing names;
• incredible trading volumes in speculative instruments like weekly call options and worthless common stock;6 and
• a parabolic ascent toward a top.

I also see many of these factors given. You only need to be active in a few large Facebook groups. Then you can play bingo daily with these criteria. And no, I don’t think I’m smarter than the market, yet I feel very strongly connected to the following words:

“I wasn’t smart, but even a dumb young kid could see these guys were gambling. They were all borrowing money and having a good time and being right for a few months and, after that, you know what happened.”

Irving Kahn spoke these words shortly before the crash of 1929. Irving Kahn was a legendary investor and started his investment carrier as an assistant to Benjamin Graham at Columbia Business School in 1928. In the summer of 1929, some months before the great crash in September, he made his first short sale. As a result, his initial investment doubled while the stock market crashed.

Davin Einhorn also had an excellent anecdote in his Q3 letter:

“There are many anecdotes of toppy behavior. We will share one: We recently received a job application with the email subject, “I am young, but good at investments” from a 13-year-old who purports to have quadrupled his money since February.”

The markets have already lost some momentum 

The markets have already lost some momentum. From my perspective, that the valuation of many stocks is far too lofty, which is especially true for the companies that suffered massive revenue declines and profit losses during the COVID-19 crisis (such as Visa). The panic in February and March had a reason. Back then, investors have priced in a pandemic that will affect us for a long time to come. And that is still true and must be reflected in the share prices. Winter is just coming, and further governmental restrictions or even lockdowns are foreseeable (but I won’t repeat me. I’ve already written enough about it).

By the way, the Great Depression also came in several phases

Of course, nobody knows exactly how things will continue. But I am not optimistic about the short-term developments (but I might be wrong). One reason for my rather negative attitude is also a look into the past. Did you know that the Great Depression went through several phases, with the 1929 crash being only one phase (and not the worst)?

Phase 1: It all began with the Stock Market Crash in September 1929

The Great Depression began with an initial crash on the stock markets in September 1929. This crash lasted until November and resulted in losses of up to almost 50 percent.

Phase 2: The recovery

After this crash, a recovery set in, with the stock markets catching up by 50 percent overall. This recovery lasted about five months.

Phase 3: Destruction

Well, and what happens after that, I think most investors have forgotten. After all, the crash in 1929 was only the foretaste of one of the worst stock market losses of all time.

The recovery after the 1929 crash thus went from below 200 points to almost 300 points. Only then did it drop to below 50 points! Stick this on your wall!

Let’s go bargain hunting

As you know, I invest in the market despite possible overvaluation. However, I adhere to some criteria. I’m starting to take a closer look than usual at the cash that companies either generate or are sitting on. Similarly, the ability to pay dividends from cash flow and profits and not reduce payouts over many years is a sign of strength for me.

Besides, I look at common ratios, such as the P/E ratio. Companies must give me a perspective. How many years does it take for a company to refinance my investment with its current profits? Everything that takes longer than 20 years needs a justification (for example, big growth or a lot of cash flow and a high and secure dividend).

Below I have listed two companies that look like they are currently reasonably rated. Both Intel and Pfizer should increase cash flow and profits in the long run. But both are presently struggling with some problems. These are good opportunities for long-term investors to buy shares and then leave them for the next 10 and 20 years. So here is Intel (click here for Intel’s history of failure). Based on the expected fair value at the end of next year, we have an upside potential of almost 30 percent.

Intel currently has a relatively high dividend yield of over 3 percent and a single-digit P/E ratio. Both also indicate a substantial undervaluation.

Pfizer also looks cheap. Here we have an upside potential of 26 percent based on the expected fair value at the end of 2023.

Time to do your due diligence

Has a company caught your interest? Attractive dividend yields should not be the only reason to buy shares of a company. Instead, you must carry out careful due diligence before every purchase. The Internet offers you excellent opportunities in this respect.

My analyses here on the TEV Blog are an excellent way to start (click here). You can also contact me here or ask the community in the comments if they can help with your due diligence.

Otherwise, I use tools like those from Dividendstocks.cash and Seeking Alpha to do further research. You can also find me and my analyses on these platforms. We also have a small but lovely group on Facebook that you can join. We share there only fundamental analyses of companies from various sources. So there is no spamming or anything like that.

If you don’t want to miss any new articles, you can easily follow me on

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That said, feel free to let us know if I have overlooked an attractive stock or you know of a stock that is particularly attractive and where the ex-dividend date is coming up.

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